On October 15, the Central Meteorological Observatory released a mid-term weather forecast highlighting significant precipitation expected across central and eastern China, accompanied by a strong cold air mass affecting the region.
In the past ten days, from October 5 to 14, much of the eastern and central parts of the country experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. However, areas such as the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangsu, and northern coastal Zhejiang received cumulative rainfall between 30 to 70 mm, with some localized regions seeing up to 100 mm. While these areas have seen above-average precipitation, most other regions in China experienced a deficit.
Temperature patterns during this period showed averages 1 to 2 degrees Celsius higher than the same time last year in the Tibetan Plateau, Northwest China, North China, Northeast China, and the Huang-Huai region, though most other areas remained close to normal.
Looking ahead to the next ten days, from October 15 to 24, the forecast indicates widespread rainfall across eastern regions, particularly in the eastern Southwest, Jianghan, Huang-Huai, western Jianghuai, central and western Jiangnan, and western South China. Cumulative rainfall in these areas is expected to reach 30 to 60 mm, with some regions receiving between 70 to 100 mm, and localized spots in eastern Sichuan Basin and Guizhou potentially exceeding 150 mm. Areas in northern Xinjiang, eastern Northwest China, central and southern North China, and eastern and southern Northeast China are expected to see 10 to 30 mm of precipitation, which could be about double the usual amounts for this time of year.
Temperature forecasts indicate that northeastern China and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau will likely be 1 to 2 degrees Celsius below average, while parts of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, western Inner Mongolia, most of Jiangnan, and South China may experience temperatures 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above average. Most other regions are expected to remain near normal.
Key weather events include a significant drop in temperatures in parts of eastern Inner Mongolia and Northeast China on the 15th, with temperatures falling between 6 to 10 degrees Celsius, and in some areas by more than 12 degrees. From the 16th to 18th, extensive rainfall is anticipated across central and eastern regions, with North China, Jianghan, Huang-Huai, Jianghuai, southwestern Jiangnan, and parts of eastern Sichuan, and Guizhou expecting moderate to heavy rainfall, and localized heavy downpours. The western regions of Xinjiang and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau may experience light to moderate snowfall or rain-snow mixes, with some areas facing substantial snow or blizzards.
On the 18th and 19th, the strong cold air mass will result in gusty winds and significant temperature drops ranging from 6 to 10 degrees in most areas north of the Yangtze River, with some parts of Northeast China dropping over 12 degrees. Following this, from the 20th to the 22nd, another wave of cold air is predicted to impact central and eastern China.
The longer-term outlook for October 25 to 28 suggests rainfall between 10 to 30 mm in the eastern Southwest, eastern Northwest regions, western Jianghan, and western Jiangnan. While northern Xinjiang may experience temperatures 1 to 2 degrees Celsius lower than normal, most regions are expected to hover around or slightly above average temperatures, particularly in eastern Inner Mongolia and Northeast China where temperatures may be 1 to 3 degrees higher.
Meteorologists are particularly focused on the significant wind and cooling effects expected across central and eastern China, especially during the substantial rainfall forecasted from the 16th to the 18th, which will likely alleviate some meteorological drought conditions in regions like Jianghan and Jiangnan. Additionally, the 18th and 19th will see temperatures drop north of the Yangtze River, with the 0-degree Celsius line moving into the mountainous regions of northern North China.
