Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are escalating, mainly triggered by North Korea’s recent release of balloon-borne propaganda into South Korean airspace and South Korea’s three drone incursions into North Korea within eight days. However, foreign media analysts suggest that internal political strife in South Korea and the emerging alliance between North Korea and Russia play significant roles in this situation.
On February 14, South Korea’s polling agency Realmeter released the findings of its latest survey, indicating that President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval rating has plunged to a mere 25.8%, with a disapproval rate soaring to 71.3%.
Conducted from July 7 to 11, this rolling poll shows a decrease in approval of 2.1 percentage points from the previous week, marking a record low for Yoon’s government since he took office over two years ago. Meanwhile, the disapproval rate has risen by 3.2 percentage points, reaching an all-time high under his leadership.
Following the April national elections, excluding alliances with the main opposition Democratic Party and other minor parties, the Democratic Party alone secured a majority in the 300-seat National Assembly. This reality means that Yoon Suk-yeol’s five-year term is practically trapped in a “small North, big South” dilemma.
Additionally, the scandal involving First Lady Kim Keon-hee’s receipt of a luxury Dior bag worth 3 million won (about $2,208) has stirred significant outrage domestically, despite prosecutors deciding not to file charges. As a result, some media outlets speculate that Yoon’s recent actions toward North Korea may be intended to divert public attention from these controversies.
In a further twist, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February the previous year, relations between North Korea and Russia have continued to strengthen. Both countries, subjected to Western sanctions, signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in June in Pyongyang. President Putin stated that this treaty mandates mutual assistance in the event of external aggression against either party.
This development essentially forms an alliance between Russia and North Korea, deepening military and economic cooperation and fortifying their united front against the United States. It also empowers the oft-isolated regime in Pyongyang to adopt a more confrontational stance toward South Korea.
