U.S. investigators are delving into the recent leak of two highly classified intelligence documents that surfaced on the messaging app Telegram last Friday. These documents allegedly provide a U.S. assessment of Israeli plans to conduct an attack on Iran, based on satellite imagery interpretation and other intelligence sources.
On Monday, John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, expressed President Joe Biden’s “deep concern” regarding this leak. However, officials have yet to determine whether the documents were made public due to a hacking incident or an internal leak.
For the past three weeks, Israel has been preparing to retaliate against Iran following a significant ballistic missile attack on October 1, which Tehran claims was a response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.
Experts analyzing the documents have found the language and formatting believable and consistent with previously leaked classified materials. Labeled “Top Secret,” the documents include the acronym “FGI,” which stands for “Foreign Government Intelligence.” They appear to have been circulated among the intelligence agencies of the Five Eyes alliance, which includes the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Another term noted is “TK,” or “Talent Keyhole,” referring to satellite-based signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery intelligence (IMINT).
The two documents collectively represent a U.S. assessment of Israel’s preparations to target Iranians, with analysis reportedly conducted by the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency on October 15-16. Notably, the documents highlight two Air Launched Ballistic Missile (ABLM) systems: Golden Horizon and Rocks. The Rocks, developed by the Israeli firm Rafael, is designed for striking a variety of targets, while Golden Horizon is believed to refer to the Blue Sparrow missile system that boasts a range of approximately 2,000 km (1,240 miles). This suggests that the Israeli Air Force may be planning a more extensive version of its April attack on an Iranian radar site near Isfahan, potentially enabling them to launch from farther away and avoid some regional airspace.
Interestingly, the documents do not indicate any preparations by Israel to activate its nuclear deterrent. Due to U.S. policy, there is no public acknowledgment of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, which has led to some discomfort in Washington.
However, the documents leave out critical details regarding the specific targets Israel plans to strike in Iran and the timeline for these actions. The U.S. government has publicly opposed any attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities or oil installations, implying the military bases, particularly those tied to the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its Basij militia, are potential targets. With tensions high, many anticipated a swift retaliatory action from Israel, yet delays may be linked to U.S. apprehensions about escalating conflicts with the U.S. presidential elections on the horizon.
There is speculation that the leak was intentional, possibly orchestrated by someone aiming to disrupt Israel’s planned attacks. Given Iran possesses a sophisticated cyber-warfare capability, investigations into a potential hostile hack are also underway. If the documents are indeed genuine, they reveal that despite the strong defense collaboration between the U.S. and Israel, Washington continues to monitor its ally closely to ensure it has a complete understanding of the situation.
In summary, if Israel proceeds with its plans as indicated, the Middle East may soon face another chapter of heightened tension.
